The LacroCity Weekend Primer 3/26/21
The Road to Championship Weekend is Paved by ACC Steamrollers
Hello friends, it’s been a wild week which means that the weekend will ultimately follow suit. Thanks again for subscribing and for being you. If you know anyone else that may enjoy this experience, kindly refer them to http://lacrocity.substack.com and make sure to tell them that being a paid subscriber makes them eligible to win, like, a boat or something. If I get to 100 subscribers I will absolutely give away a boat. Fine. A drawing of a boat.
Stat of the Week
Tampa’s Ross Dickerson in his season debut: three goals and a 91% FO win rate.
The Reigning DII player of the year had to wait more than a month to get his shot on the field but once he did he made it count. One of the things that Dickerson worked to improve on in his last two years was his ability to stay in the play after the draw. Athletically he’s not big or particularly fast, but he;’s tenacious and worked hard to get his stick skills up to a much higher standard. The Tampa area could be adding another ring to its dirty little fingers if the Spartans can stay hot and march to the DII title game, which - by all accounts - looks more than likely after dusting Saint Leo 24-8.
Game to Watch
Notre Dame vs. Virginia
The great ACC war of 2021 began last night with Duke edging out Syracuse 15-14. The second skirmish is set to kick off on Saturday with the Fighting Irish hosting the Wahoo/Cavaliers for a lunchy-brunchy exchange at noon on Saturday. (Don’t worry, the rest of the games are pretty rough, so you won’t need to make any viewing adjustments. Choose life. Choose chaos. Choose the ACC.)
Now, this is the first high-level test for Notre Dame, as they have easily manhandled all of their early-season opponents, winning their first four games by an average margin of 9.75 goals. Conversely, Virginia has had a much tougher road and has already played (and lost) to ACC teams in Syracuse (10-20) and North Carolina (13-16).
The core identity of both of these teams has been traditionally and diametrically opposed Notre Dame is a defensive team. Virginia is an offensive team. This is, of course, an oversimplification - especially this year. The Irish are now perfectly capable of stacking up multi-shot possessions thanks to Kyle Gallagher (84%) and Charles Leonard (71%) tag-teaming the face-off X. Virginia manufactures goals out of calculated late-ride jumps on unsuspecting midfielders as well as a truly matchup-proof troika of Connor Shellenberger (14g, 22a), Matt Moore (14, 13) and Peyton Cormier (22, 8).
The attackmen may have the lion’s share of both of these teams’ points, but both squads employ a very effective top-down attack. In fact, two of ND’s three players with 20 shots or more are midfielders: Quinn McCahon and Eric Dobson. Virginia only uses midfielders on offense in the sense that they dare the opposing defense to short stick Charlie Bertrand and force a switch. It doesn’t usually go that well.
The goaltenders for both of these teams have had vastly different seasons. Liam Entenmann looks to be the class of the position through four games and owns a stellar 70% save percentage. Alex Rode hasn’t been as consistent saving 54% of the shots he has seen so far. But it’s unfair to compare goalies to goalies, ashes to slashes, or dust to rust. Entenmann has never played in a big game. Rode has a championship ring. Stats are meaningless in a one-game scenario where you cannot predict how many shots you will face. Always bet big on experience in the moment.
One on One Matchup to Watch
Brett Makar vs. Connor Kirst
Maryland doesn’t typically play matchups straight up, but when these two teams first clashed Makar was noticeably called upon to check Kirst. As great as Maryland’s team defense is - particularly on the interior - the one place they can struggle is pressing out on shooters. McNaney has bailed them out way more than his stats suggest, as his ability to cover the far side of the pipe is elite.
Kirst is one of the few players in college lacrosse that shoots so hard that he can flat out ruin a goalies day. Don’t make leg saves on Connor Kirst - it’s literally not worth the hematoma. Rush out too quickly and you become a pylon to shoot around or through.
Makar is one of the few defenders that can crash into Kirst and not break himself into shards of regret. It’s hard to be a defender when the beast that you’re defending is bigger than you and maybe even meaner. Makar doesn’t just defend with brute strength, though - he has incredible footwork. Kirst has the footwork of a man playing Godzilla in a rubber suit - heavy and deliberate. I cannot wait to see these guys throw down again on Sunday.
Devitte Matrix Leaderboard Presented by Lacrosse Reference
The Devitte Matrix is a number that combines a player’s goals and assists and subtracts their turnovers. We’re trying to make it into an effective and more universal measurement of true offensive impact. Like a swear counter on a YouTube video.
Chris Gray, UNC, 46 (5.75 DMPG)
Michael Sowers, Duke, 36 (4.25 DMPG)
Joe Robertson, Duke, 30 (3.75 DMPG)
Ryan Smith, RMU, 26 (3.7 DMPG)
Adam Charalambides, Rutgers, 25 (5 DMPG)
Is Clark going to win this week?
Well, they open with Babson this weekend and the Beavers were well on their way to gatekeeper status in New England before the pandemic derailed their season in 2020, so...Uhm. Probably not? But in these crazy COVID times, anything can happen and the Cougars have some talented scorers in Bobby Philbin and Chris Rasco. Also - I hate Babson. Knock their stupid aquatic rodent teeth in. Roll Cougs.