Are You Worried Yet?
Hey, man - let me ruin your weekend real quick...
In uncertain times there is one question I can count on hearing every week. It’s become a filthy peeling wallpaper lining the room of lacrosse discussion; ever-present with flowers that seem to wilt like they’re real.
“Do you think there will be a season?”
My answer has been the same for some time. And it’s not fun because it’s, “I don’t know.”
Frequently it is also, “It depends…”
Or, “Yeah, maybe?”
They’re all true because they’re all non-committal and change depending on which day it is. I shouldn’t have to throw a disclaimer in here because this is a theoretical exercise, but here it is in case you want to use this to build your own clickbait article. Imitation is the sincerest form of laziness.
Actually, screw that. Let’s just examine the case, shall we?
A few caveats before we begin assembling.
The virus is real. It kills people. Even if it doesn’t kill younger people with less frequency than older people, they still die. A lot of people have died. If you’d like to dispute these facts, you can do so on your own time and outside of this space. This isn’t about arguing acceptable risk - the safety is already compromised by the very nature of the epidemic BEING an epidemic.
This is a newsletter about lacrosse, so this article is going to be about lacrosse. However, college sports of all types are valuable to every person that has ever worked, played, or participated in an athletics department. Playing lacrosse in college changed my life. Coaching college lacrosse did too. But if I had played another sport I think that I would feel the same. So, let’s not pretend that all of those students that lost their seasons - in some cases more than once - aren’t hurting. We can talk about possibly losing lacrosse and still be empathetic to those that have lost their sports as well, right? After all, this isn’t Twitter and you’re better than that.
I hope I’m wrong about the hypothesis I’m going to build towards. I really do. Know that.
The most recent development is that the Ivy League has canceled winter sports and postponed spring sports (like lacrosse) until March. Whether you like it or not, the Ivy League has become the bellwether of the tiered sports landscape. (Which is a nice way of saying that there is too much money in big-time college football for me to even fathom that sport’s full cancellation. Millions of dollars equate to thousands of risks and I’ve never been happier to have grown up in a region of the country where college football barely exists.) So, the good news is that lacrosse doesn’t have millions in TV revenue on the table to make the decision for them...but it’s also the bad news. Millions of dollars would change the landsca- I’m already off-topic. Apologies.
The point is that the Ivy League didn’t full-on cancel spring sports. They could have, they still might, but they didn’t pull that trigger yet. Here’s the thing - I don’t think it means anything. Everyone is pushing things back. As a Christmas baby, I think we should push all the holidays back because we are in the middle of a new wave of infections that will only get worse with family gatherings. All you have to do is take a look at what is happening with the virus in the midwest to see how exponential the transmission is. Postponing doesn’t mean that cancellation is on the horizon, but it certainly increases the chances. The fact that the Ivy League has already canceled winter sports does mean that they will do it again if things remain the same.
Let’s look at all of the other developments that have led us to this point in terms of programs that have already announced that they will not field lacrosse teams in 2021. (This is a working list, feel free to add in the comments.)
Furman (This happened pre-COVID but I’m still upset about it. Never too soon to keep mentioning it).
The key to all of this will be money. And it’s not the money you think it is - lacrosse, like scared money, don’t make money. Not like other first and second tier sports do, anyway. Not for colleges. That matters because the money it costs to test athletes is what I believe will decide whether or not your favorite team/school/conference/division will play games.
“Does a random DIII school in New England have the money to test all of their athletes for COVID?” Is not the question one needs to be asking now. The question is, “Does every school in every conference of every division have the money (and wherewithal/desire) to test every spring athlete regularly?”
The answer to that second question is “No.”
The ones that have the capability to test their athletes - all of their athletes - regularly have the best chance to stay the course. Which schools are those? That’s the wrong question. Conferences have been making the call across the board since March. It’s the constitution of those conferences that will ford the river of doubt.
In yet another case of the rich getting richer in lacrosse, those conferences would be (in men’s DI), compiled by a not-complex metric of endowment and alumni pull/influence: the ACC, the Big 10, and the Ivy League. I don’t think that’s disputable. The Ivy League has already shown that they are willing to make the first move on the chessboard when it comes to seasonal annihilation. The Big 10 is playing football now, the ACC has been for some time. It’s not a foolproof indicator, since, again money guides these kinds of decisions, but it is an indicator nonetheless.
How do I know that? In addition to communication with DI assistants and other contacts, I’ve spoken with a number of coaches at other levels. I’m a DIII and DII guy, which means that I’m basically the Garth Brooks of this situation - I got friends in low places. Trust me when I tell you that not one of them is optimistic about playing in 2021. Here are two direct text examples:
“College is a shitshow but [the] plan is to play. It will be about who’s willing to pay for COVID testing.”
“Which kills half the DII and DIII schools.”
“Yes. KILLS.”
“What are you hearing?”
“Nothing good from anyone.”
“No?”
“Usually the worst of signs.”
Without a readily available vaccine, we are looking at a patchwork attempt at a lacrosse season across all divisions. We will see seasons initially canceled team by team and then conference by conference until we are left with geographical outliers and incomplete rosters or nothing at all. Chaos will reign. This is where I want to preach to you to stay inside and wear a mask. But it’s too late. You’re going to do what you want to do. I just hope I’m wrong about everything and you’re the one that’s right. We both should be worried.
…
This changes nothing. If anything, it reinforces the emphasis on testing which is the burden that each conference and program will have to undertake.